Thursday April 9, 2015 at 7:00 PM EDT
Saturday April 11, 2015 at 3:00 PM EDT

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The Friday Center 
100 Friday Center Drive
Chapel Hill, NC 27599-1020

Driving Directions 


Carolyn Pumphrey, Ph.D. 
Triangle Institute for Security Studies IC-CAE in Intelligence and Security 

Warning and All Source Intelligence: Conference (and associated simulation) April 9-11, 2015 


On April 9-10th, 2015, The TISS-IC CAE in Intelligence and Security will host a conference on "Warning and All-Source Intelligence." This conference, which will open with a Thursday evening keynote by Professor Richard Betts of Columbia University, is free and open to the public. It will be followed on Friday evening and Saturday by a simulation focused on a future India-Pakistan conflict. The simulation is open to students and by special invitation.


TISS IC –CAE in Intelligence and Security

Warning and All Source Intelligence

Friday Center, Chapel Hill, April 9-11th, 2015


Thursday 9 April


7:00-8:30PM     KEYNOTE [Welcome, Peter Feaver, TISS Director]

  • Richard K. Betts, Columbia University, "Does Strategic Intelligence Matter?"   


Friday 10 April 

Colloquium (Open to the Public)

8:00 AM        Welcome

8:10 – 10:10            PANEL I: Warning    [Timothy Nichols, Duke, Moderator]


  • Joe Caddell, UNC-Chapel Hill
    • Warning: Concepts and Background
    • Michael Warner, NSA
      • Challenges of Warning in a Networked Age


10:30 – 12:30         PANEL II:  All-Source Intelligence   [Tricia Sullivan, UNC, Moderator[?]]


  • Jennifer E. Sims, Chicago Council on Global Affairs
  • Sara Bush, UNC-Chapel Hill


Buffet Luncheon - Trillium


1:30 – 3:30 PANEL III:  Regional Experts [David Gilmartin, NCSU, Moderator]

  • Feroz Khan, Naval Postgraduate School
    • Pakistan
    • Sameer Lalwani, MIT
      • India
      • Paul Miller, UT Austin
        • Regional Intelligence challenges


Simulation – India Pakistan Free-Flowing Scenario




President of the US: Ambassador David Litt

Control: Operational; Joe Caddell, Bill Boettcher, Tim Nichols

Regional Experts: David Gilmartin

Mentors: Colin Tuley, Chavius Lewis (Military Fellows, invited)

Intelligence Organizations (Students):  DNI, DIA, CIA, NGA, ONI, FBI, NSA, SIS (British)

Technical Advisor, David Joyner (Invited)


Friday, April 10





4:00 pm – 4:30 pm -- Exercise Introduction (Sunflower Room, Friday Center)

4:30 pm - 5:30 pm Opening Plenary Session (Sunflower Room

Meeting with DNI and team-meetings


5:45 pm – 6:30 pm – First operational session  (Scenario Play Begins)


Saturday, April  11

8 am – 2 pm (Scenario)

2 pm – 3 pm (Evaluation and Assessment) – Students, Control, President.

essment) – Students, Control, President.


Simulation – India Pakistan Free-Flowing Scenario




President of the US: Ambassador David Litt

Control: Operational; Joe Caddell, Bill Boettcher, Tim Nichols

Regional Experts: David Gilmartin

Mentors: Colin Tuley, Chavius Lewis (Military Fellows, invited)

Intelligence Organizations (Students):  DNI, DIA, CIA, NGA, ONI, FBI, NSA, SIS (British)

Technical Advisor, David Joyner (Invited)

 sment) – Students, Control, President.






Richard K. Betts is the Arnold A. Saltzman Professor of War and Peace Studies in the political science department, Director of the Saltzman Institute of War and Peace Studies, and Director of the International Security Policy program in the School of International and Public Affairs at Columbia University. Previously he served as Director of National Security Studies at the Council on Foreign Relations for four years and remains an adjunct Senior Fellow. Betts has also held positions at the Brookings Institution, Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies, and Harvard University. Additionally, Betts has served as a staff member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and the National Security Council, as well as in an advisory position for the Central Intelligence Agency and other governmental agencies. He has written or edited eleven books, as well as numerous articles. Among his many prizes include the International Studies Association’s ISSS Distinguished Scholar Award in 2005 and MIT’s Doolittle Award in 2012.  He holds a Ph.D. in Government from Harvard University.  




Sara Bush is a doctoral candidate in the History Department at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill specializing in China, global security and intelligence history, and U.S.-China relations. Sara’s dissertation research focuses on the implications of inefficiency and interagency conflict in the process of U.S. intelligence collection about the Chinese Communist Party in the 1940s. She holds a Master’s degree from the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University, where she specialized in security studies and Asia. Prior to starting her doctoral program, Sara served as an intelligence analyst for the US government in Washington DC from 2003 to 2009 and as a program assistant at the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations, a non-governmental organization in New York City, from 2000 to 2002.  She teaches a course at UNC on the Comparative History of National Intelligence Regimes.


Joseph Caddell is a lecturer in history at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Teaching Assistant Professor of History at North Carolina State University, and Professor Emeritus of the National Intelligence University.  He served in the U.S.  Air Force as a Combat Intelligence Officer and Target Intelligence Officer, 1973-1976, and thereafter taught Warning as a Reserve officer until 1997. He retired in the rank of Lieutenant Colonel. He currently teaches the History of Air Power, the History of Sea Power, U.S. Military History; and Nuclear Security in the Twenty First Century and Intelligence History.  He has edited three works for the US Air War College: Nuclear Strategy, The Superpowers, and Arms Control, published a monograph on Deception for the Army War College’s Strategic Studies Institute, and contributed to the Oxford Bibliographies Online (U.S. Air Power).  He holds a Ph.D. in history from Duke University.


Feroz Khan is a retired Brigadier General with thirty-two years of experience in the Pakistan Army and currently serves as a Lecturer at the Naval Postgraduate School. His last post in the Pakistan Army was as the Director of Arms Control and Disarmament Affairs within the Strategic Plans Division in the Joint Services Headquarters. General Khan made key contributions in formulating and advocating Pakistan’s security policy on nuclear and conventional arms control and strategic stability in South Asia. He produced recommendations for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and represented Pakistan in several multilateral and bilateral arms control negotiations. Additionally, General Khan has served as a visiting scholar or fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center, Stanford University’s Center for International Studies and Arms Control, and the Brooking Institution among many others. He is currently writing a book on “Pakistan’s Nuclear Program and U.S. Policy.” Among his academic degrees, General Khan holds an M.A. from the Paul Nitze School of Advanced International Studies, The Johns Hopkins University, Washington, DC.


Sameer Lalwani is a PhD candidate in Political Science at MIT where he is an affiliate of the Security Studies Program. Lalwani is currently a pre-doctoral fellow at George Washington University’s Institute for Security and Conflict Studies. He studies U.S. grand strategy, military intervention, civil-conflict, civil-military relations, and national security decision making. His dissertation seeks to explain why states choose particular strategies within civil conflict to combat rebellion, primarily in South Asia. Sameer has conducted field research in Pakistan, India, and Kashmir and archival research in the UK, for which he has received support from the Smith-Richardson Foundation, the Tobin Project and the MIT Entrepreneurship Center. Previously, he spent three years as a policy analyst at the New America Foundation. He holds a bachelor's degree in political science from University of California, Berkeley.


Paul Miller is the Associate Director of the Clements Center for History, Strategy & Statecraft at the University of Texas at Austin. Previously, he was political scientist in the National Security Research Division at the RAND Corporation. He served as Director for Afghanistan and Pakistan on the National Security Council staff from 2007 through September 2009. Prior to joining RAND, Miller was an assistant professor at the National Defense University in Washington, D.C., at which he developed and directed the College of International Security Affairs' South and Central Asia Program. He also worked as an analyst in the Central Intelligence Agency's Office of South Asian Analysis, and served in Afghanistan as a military intelligence analyst with the U.S. Army. In addition to numerous articles, he is the author of Armed State Building (Cornell University Press, 2013), a study of the causes of success and failure in reconstruction and stabilization operations. Paul Miller holds a doctorate in international relations from Georgetown University.


Jennifer E. Sims is a Senior Fellow of National Intelligence at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. She also serves as professor and the director of intelligence studies at Georgetown University’s Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service. Previously, Sims was Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Intelligence Coordination and later as an intelligence advisor to the Under Secretary for Management and Coordinator for Intelligence Resources and Planning at the Department of State. She also served as a professional staff member of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence and as a legislative assistant to Senator John Danforth on foreign and defense policy. In 1998, Sims was the recipient of the intelligence community's highest civilian award, the National Distinguished Service Medal. Sims is currently writing a book on reforming US intelligence organization and practices.  She holds a doctorate in European Politics and National Security Policy from Johns Hopkins SAIS.


Michael Warner is the Command Historian for US Cyber Command.  He has written and lectured widely on intelligence history, theory, and reform, and he teaches as an Adjunct Professor at both Johns Hopkins University and American University. Dr. Warner also sits on the board of editors of the journal Intelligence and National Security. His new book, The Rise and Fall of Intelligence: An International Security History, was published by Georgetown University Press in 2014.  Additional essays and volumes include:  “Cybersecurity:  A Pre-History,” Intelligence and National Security 27:5 (October 2012); “The Rise of the US Intelligence System,” in Loch Johnson, ed., The Oxford Handbook of National Security Intelligence (Oxford, 2010); and “Building a Theory of Intelligence Systems,” in Greg Treverton & Wilhelm Agrell, eds., National Intelligence Systems:  Current Research and Future Prospects, (Cambridge, 2009). Dr. Warner earned his doctorate in history from the University of Chicago.


Moderators and Simulation Participants


William A. Boettcher III (Ph.D., Ohio State University) is an Associate Professor of Political Science at North Carolina State University. His research focuses on the management of risk in foreign policy decision making and the framing of casualty data. He has published articles in the Journal of Conflict Resolution and Political Psychology and the Journal of Applied Social Psychology and is the author of a recent book, Presidential Risk Behavior in Foreign Policy: Prudence or Peril. This work looks at why Cold War Presidents were willing to risk entrapment and even war-escalation to contain Communist expansion and to preserve U.S. credibility.

David Gilmartin is a Professor of History at North Carolina State University.  His research focuses on the intersections between the history of British imperialism in South Asia and the development of modern politics and forms of rule.  His first book, Empire and Islam:  Punjab and the Making of Pakistan focused on the relationship between British imperial rule and the creation of Pakistan at the time of India's independence from Britain in 1947.  More recent research projects have focused on the connections between irrigation-based environmental transformations (in the Indus basin) and modern politics, and on the legal history of India's electoral institutions as they have evolved from its colonial past. His most recent book projects focus on the history of irrigation and politics in the Indus basin and on the legal and institutional structures that underpin Indian democracy. He received his doctorate in History from the University of California-Berkeley. 


Ambassador David Litt served for 34 years as a career U.S. diplomat, specializing in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. In 2005-2006 he was the third-ranking officer at the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq, with the title of Political-Military Counselor, providing policy advice to the U.S. Ambassador, and serving as liaison between the Embassy and the Multi-National Forces – Iraq.  His final assignment as a Foreign Service Officer, prior to retirement in 2008, was as the Associate Director for International Liaison at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies in Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Germany. Ambassador Litt previously served as the U.S. Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates (1995-1998), as Consul General in Dubai, and the Director of the Office of Northern Gulf Affairs. Ambassador Litt received the Secretary of Defense Meritorious Civilian Service Award in 2004 and USSOCOM’s Civilian Award for Outstanding Service in 2002.


Tim Nichols served as an intelligence officer in the Marine Corps for over 21 years with extensive experience in the special operations and counterterrorism fields. His overseas experience spans deployments to Iraq, Afghanistan, East Africa, Central America, and the Pacific. He has been designated as a Regional Affairs Officer for East Africa. While in Iraq, he led a joint interagency task force in tracking and targeting the migration paths of foreign extremists traveling to Iraq for violent activities. Prior to his retirement from the military, Tim taught courses in Leadership, Ethics, and Management at Duke, UNC, and NC State for four years. In addition to his consulting activities, Tim is currently a research fellow and visiting associate professor of the practice in the School of Public Policy at Duke University. His research interests and teaching responsibilities include intelligence, interagency coordination, national security, homeland security and counterterrorism policy. He holds an MA from the University of South Florida and an MBA from North Carolina State University.


Parking at the Friday Center is free and readily available.  Permits will be emailed to registered attendees a few days before the event.