Tuesday, March 7
8:30 AM: Continental Breakfast
9:00 AM - 11:45 AM: Conference Sessions
11:45 AM - 12:45 PM: Lunch
1:15 PM - 4:00 PM: Conference Sessions
4:00 PM - 5:30 PM: Reception with no-host bar and technology partner demonstrations

Wednesday, March 8
8:30 AM: Continental Breakfast
9:00 AM - 12:00 PM: Conference Session
12:00 PM - 1:00 PM: Lunch
1:00 PM - 5:00 PM: Conference Session 
4:30 PM - 5:30 PM: Optional Improvisational Computer Lab 


Loring Ward Corporate Office
10 Almaden Boulevard, 15th Floor
San Jose, CA 95113

Hotel Reservations

Hotel De Anza
233 W Santa Clara St.
San Jose, CA 95113  

A limited number of rooms are available at a discounted rate.

Attendees are responsible for making their own guestroom reservations by contacting the Hotel De Anza directly. 

Phone: 408-286-1000 (ask for Reservations and mention "Probability Management Group")

Website: Reserve here or visit and use code SIPMATH


Melissa Kirmse
Probability Management

CAP PDU Credit

Conference qualifies for 6 hours of CAP PDU credit per day.


Annual Conference 

Modeling Uncertainty in Cybersecurity, Operational Risk, and Regulation
March 7 - 8, 2017 

Featured Presentations


Communicating Uncertainty
Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate
and Board Member,
(via web meeting)

Probability Management
Overview and Managing Risk
on Your Laptop

Sam Savage, Executive Director, Probability and author of 
The Flaw of Averages 

Keynote: Probabilistic Measures 
of Cybersecurity Risk
Doug Hubbard, President, 
Hubbard Decision Research and coauthor of How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity


Case Studies

  • Belief in Probabilistic Models: The Human Element of Detectors And The Mistakes of a New Data Scientist - Anton Mobley, Cybersecurity Data Scientist, GE Healthcare
  • Building A Probabilistic Cyber Risk Register: HTMA in Cybersecurity Risk Applied In The Real World - Richard Seiersen, coauthor of How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity and VP of Trust and CISO, Twilio
  • Managing Risk and Reliability in a Regulated Environment - Mason Withers, Quantitative Risk and Controls Manager, Sempra Utilities
  • Managing Uncertainty in City Budget Forecasts - Shayne Kavanagh, Senior Manager of Research, Government Finance Officers Association
  • Modeling Best Practices Benchmarking Project (MBP2) – Initial Findings; Everyone is Uncertain Whether They Know it or Not - Steve Roemerman, Chairman & CEO, Lone Star Analysis
  • Multi Criterion Optimization and Other Lies - Phil Fahringer, Operations Analyst & Fellow, Lockheed Martin
  • Rolling Up Operational Risk at PG&E - Christine Cowsert Chapman, Asset Knowledge & Integrity Management in Gas Operations, PG&E; Farshad Miraftab, Senior Risk Analyst, Gas Operations, PG&E
  • Submarine Detection with SIPmath in the Navy - Connor McLemore - LCDR US Navy, Assistant Professor, Naval Postgraduate School
  • Teaching Probability in Middle Schools: Live Web Interaction with West Oakland Students - Sam Savage; Kennan Scott, STEM Teacher, West Oakland Middle School
Panel Discussions

  • A Unified Approach to Risk Regulation - Grant Davies (moderator), President, Davies Consulting; Christine Cowsert Chapman; Farshad Miraftab; Richard G. White, Senior Policy Analyst, California Public Utilities Commission; Mason Withers
  • Cybersecurity: Is Your Risk Analysis Measuring the Right Threats? - Doug Hubbard (moderator); Anton Mobley; Richard Seiersen; FBI San Francisco
  • Panel on Dealing with Uncertainty in Prediction, Modeling, Simulation and Analysis: A Cross Industry View - Steve Roemerman (moderator); Philip Fahringer; Connor McLemore
Reception with no-host bar and technology partner demonstrations on the evening of March 7. 

What You Will Learn

Gartner Inc. has referred to the discipline of probability management as “transformational.”

  • Learn how to unambiguously communicate uncertainty as auditable data.
  • Learn how to create interactive risk simulations in native Excel that run thousands of trials instantly.
  • See how these ideas are being applied to cybersecurity, operational risk, and regulation. 

Who Should Attend?

  • Senior decision-makers in industry and government who must make plans in the face of uncertainty
  • Risk Management professionals
  • Project managers
  • Simulation users, in particular those familiar with Oracle Crystal Ball, @RISK, and Risk Solver platforms

Registration Details



(before 1/20/17)

(after 1/20/17)

(must use a .gov, .mil, or .edu email address to qualify)






  • 30% discount for additional attendees from the same organization. Contact Melissa Kirmse for the discount code.
  • Cancellations received by Friday, February 17, 2017 will receive a full refund. No refunds will be given for cancellations received after Friday, February 17, 2017. Cancellations must be made in writing to Melissa Kirmse at Substitutions to this event are welcome in lieu of cancellations.

Registration includes access to:General Sessions

  • General Sessions
  • Continental Breakfasts, Networking Breaks, and Networking Luncheons
  • Reception on March 7
  • Onsite Agenda and Meeting Materials
  • Latest SIPmath™ Software Tools, including Optional Improvisational Computer Lab
  • Post-event Online Speaker Proceedings (if released by speaker)