Douglas Hubbard is the founder of Hubbard Decision Research and the author of
How to Measure Anything and
The Failure of Risk Management.
Sam Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org and the author of
The Flaw of Averages and
Decision Making with Insight.
Registration fees are as follows:
Embracing Uncertainty 1-day workshop: $500
How to Measure Anything 1-day workshop: $900
2-Day Bundle: $1100
Cancellations received up to one week prior to each event will receive a full refund. No refunds will be given after that point. Cancellations must be made in writing to Melissa Kirmse. Substitutions are welcome in lieu of cancellations.
Doug Hubbard and Sam Savage, leaders of the probability management revolution, are offering a joint workshop. Attend one day or two days. Learn more below.
Workshop attendees will receive the Enterprise SIPmath Modeler Tools (a $500 value) at no charge. Lunch will be provided.
A tipping point in the power of computers, spreadsheets, and data standards has changed how we communicate and calculate uncertainty. Doug Hubbard and Sam Savage show you how to stop fearing uncertainty and start embracing it. This workshop will teach you how:
Topics
Communicating Uncertainty: A New Standard
New breakthroughs in communicating uncertainty through interactive graphics and auditable data are accessible without statistical training. Learn how the open SIPmath™ standard lets you aggregate risk across platforms across the enterprise to create a consolidated risk statement.
Ignoring Uncertainty: The Flaw of Averages
Replacing uncertainties with single number averages results in systematic errors called the Flaw of Averages, which explains why so many things are behind schedule, beyond budget, and below projection.
Measuring Uncertainty: Data and Calibrated Experts
Even when you need to start with subjective uncertainties, some methods measurably outperform others. Learn how you can state your current uncertainty quantitatively by becoming a “calibrated” probability estimator.
Reducing Uncertainty: Empirical Methods
Measurements can reduce uncertainty even when you think data is messy or missing. Basic empirical methods to reduce uncertainty will show that you need less data than you think and have more data than you think.
The Economics of Uncertainty: Value of Information
Measurement yields information that reduces uncertainty. But this may require expensive testing or market research. Determine what to measure, identifying high payoff measurements by computing the Value of Information.
The Arithmetic of Uncertainty: SIPmath in Excel
The free SIPmath Modeler Tools from nonprofit ProbabilityManagement.org let you create stand-alone risk dashboards in native Excel that perform thousands of simulation trials per keystroke without macros or add-ins. Bring some of your risk problems to the workshop for our improv modeling session.
Day 2: How to Measure Anything in Project Management
This new installment in Doug Hubbard’s successful “How to Measure Anything” series will reveal how quantitative methods, using prepared spreadsheet templates, can be applied to even the most difficult measurement problems in project management. Douglas Hubbard will describe in this full day session how to use his methods to measure any intangible, think of risk like an actuary, and look at project management decisions in a quantitative way that is proven to improve decision-making performance.
The material is designed for project managers and any analyst or decision maker responsible for creating, reviewing, or acting on business cases or performance metrics for projects.
Core Topics – The following topics are included in the day’s seminar: