When

Thursday June 18, 2015 at 8:30 AM EDT
-to-
Friday June 19, 2015 at 5:00 PM EDT
Add to Calendar

Where

Lockheed Martin Corporate Facility
Crystal City (Arlington, VA)

Hotel Reservations

Crystal City Marriott
1999 Jefferson Davis Highway
Arlington, Virginia 22202 USA
(703) 443-5500

A limited number of rooms are available at a discounted rate if booked by May 21, 2015.

Attendees are responsible for making their own guestroom reservations by contacting the Marriott directly. Mention "ProbabilityManagement.org" for the discounted rate.

Reservations Toll-Free Number:
1 888 236 2427 or online using the button below:

Learn How To:

Improve profitability by understanding cost, schedule and revenue uncertainties
Improve budget forecasting by understanding the uncertainties in your requirements
Communicate uncertainty between analysts and decision-makers as auditable data
Aggregate risk models across software platforms across the enterprise
Calculate the chances of achieving financial targets or incurring losses interactively in Excel without macros or add-ins
Calibrate the opinions of experts, when no data is available
Determine the most important uncertainties to resolve

Who Should Attend?

Senior decision-makers in industry and government who must make plans in the face of uncertainty
Risk Management professionals
Project Managers
Simulation users, in particular those familiar with Oracle Crystal Ball, @RISK and Risk Solver Platform

Leverage the event by sending teams of decision-makers and analysts. Discounts available for multiple attendees from the same company.

Conference qualifies for 6.5 hours of CAP PDU credit per day.

Contact

Melissa Kirmse
Director of Operations
melissa@probabilitymanagement.org

Probability Management Summer Conference

The New Way to Communicate, Calculate and Calibrate Risk
June 18 & 19, 2015 — 8:30 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Schedule (Tentative)

Day 1

Sam Savage - Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, author of The Flaw of Averages and Consulting Professor of Management Science & Engineering at Stanford University

The Flaw of Averages - Substituting single “average” numbers for uncertainties results in systematic errors. This is explained in terms of five fundamental concepts that underlie calculations involving uncertainty and risk.
SIPmath: The Arithmetic of Uncertainty — A new approach to communicating and calculating uncertainties is doing for probability what arabic numerals did for numbers.

Doug Hubbard - President of Hubbard Decision Research and author of How to Measure Anything

Estimating Uncertainties and Expert Calibration - Uncertainties may be estimated with or without data. Without data you must make sure to calibrate yourself.
Value of Information - This concept is foundational to the information age. What you don’t know can hurt you. What’s it worth to find out?

Plus, presentations by

Daniel Ralph - Professor at Cambridge University and Director of the Centre for Risk Studies (Webcast)
Daniel Zweidler, PhD - President, Daniel Zweidler & Associates, Inc., Senior Fellow, Wharton School

Day 2

Case Studies in Probability Management
Interactive simulations are worth 1,000 pictures. Short presentations of models with minimal PowerPoint.

David Cashbaugh - Director of Navy Personnel Research, Studies, and Technology (Webcast)
David Cawlfield - Principal Engineer, Olin Corporation
Philip Fahringer - Operations Analyst / LM Fellow, Lockheed Martin
Shyane Kavanagh - Senior Research Manager, Government Finance Officers Association
Doug Mohr - Operations Research Division Manager, UPS
Patrick C. Mackin - Senior Economist, SAG Corporation
Gregory S. Parnell - Ph.D., Col USAF (Retired), Research Professor, University of Arkansas (Webcast)
Brian Putt - Decision Analyst, Chevron (Webcast)
Allison Sandlin - Marathon Oil

Panel Discussion on Budget and Policy

Pat Delaney - Partner, Davies Consulting
Steve Roemerman - CEO, Lone Star Analysis
Marc Van Allen - Partner, Jenner & Block

Panel Discussion on Data Farming
Harvested data from analytics can be used in decision making dashboards.

Mary McDonald - Research Associate, Naval Postgraduate School
Kelly Griendling - Research Engineer, Georgia Tech
Harry Markowitz - Nobel Laureate, Economics, Inventor of SIM Script (Webcast)

Panel Discussion on Education & Communication
Probability Management is easy to explain. The hard part is getting people to understand it.

Bennett Brown - Director of Computer Science, Project Lead The Way (Webcast)
Ann Dunkin - Chief Information Officer, Environmental Protection Agency
Sam Savage - Executive Director, ProbabilityManagement.org
Michael Schrage - Research Fellow, MIT Center for Digital Business

Registration Information

	Early (before 5/8/15)	Regular (after 5/8/15)
Government/Academic (must use a .gov, .mil, or .edu email address to qualify)	$525	$650
General	$1200	$1500

20% discount for additional attendees from the same organization. Contact Melissa Kirmse for the discount code.
Cancellations received by Friday, June 5, 2015 will receive a refund minus a $75 cancellation fee. No refunds will be given for cancellations received after Friday, June 5, 2015. Cancellations must be made in writing to Melissa Kirmse at melissa@probabilitymanagement.org. Substitutions to this event are welcome in lieu of cancellations.

Registration includes access to: