Tuesday January 26
8:30 AM: Continental Breakfast
9:00 AM - 11:45 AM: Conference Session
11:45 AM - 12:45 PM: Lunch
12:45 PM - 5:00 PM: Conference Session
5:00 PM - 7:00 PM: Reception & Vendor Exhibits 

Wednesday, January 27
8:30 AM: Continental Breakfast
9:00 AM - 11:45 AM: Conference Session
11:45 AM - 12:45 PM: Lunch
12:45 PM - 5:00 PM: Conference Session 


Catamaran Resort Hotel and Spa 
3999 Mission Boulevard
San Diego, CA 92109
Driving Directions

Hotel Reservations

A limited number of rooms are available at a discounted rate if booked by December 28, 2015. 

Attendees are responsible for making their own guestroom reservations by contacting the Catamaran directly. Mention "Probability Management."

Reservations Toll-Free Number:
Within U.S.A. – 800.422.8386
Canada – 800.233.8172 or online at


We strongly recommend that conference attendees take the PM 101 and PM 102 webinars prior to the conference, as that material will not be covered in depth. These webinars are free with conference registration. Contact Melissa Kirmse for the discount code prior to webinar registration.

Register for Webinars


Melissa Kirmse 
Probability Management 

CAP PDU Credit


Conference qualifies for 6 hours of CAP PDU credit per day.


Annual Conference 

A Common Risk Lexicon for Government and Industry
January 26 - 27, 2016  

Our economy is becoming increasingly regulated to protect us from financial, security and public safety risks. A common language for communicating and calculating uncertainties is needed to make such regulation effective.



Harry Markowitz
Nobel Laureate and Probability Board Member


Sam Savage
Executive Director, Probability and author of 
The Flaw of Averages  


Doug Hubbard
President of Hubbard Decision Research and author of How to Measure Anything

Plus, presentations by

  • California Public Utilities Commission - Richard White, Analyst, Policy and Planning Division
  • Chevron - Brian Putt, Decision Analyst
  • Environmental Protection Agency - Mike Messner, Mathematical Statistician
  • GE Healthcare - Richard Seiersen, General Manager, Cyber Security & Privacy
  • Government Finance Officers Association - Shayne Kavanagh, Sr. Manager, Research; Kara Skinner, CFO, Colorado Springs, CO
  • Lockheed Martin - David Frye, Modeling & Analysis Technical Lead
  • Naval Postgraduate School - LCDR Connor McLemore, Military Assistant Professor, Operations Research Dept.
  • - Marc Thibault - Chair, Standards Committee
  • Technology Partnerz - Eric Torkia, Founder
Reception with Harry Markowitz & vendor exhibits on the evening of January 26 including:
  • A & N Technical Services 
  • Automatic Forecasting Systems
  • Lumina Decision Systems
  • Technology Partnerz 

Space is still available for additional vendors. Contact Melissa Kirmse for more details.

Learn How To:

  • Improve profitability by understanding cost, schedule and revenue uncertainties
  • Improve budget forecasting by understanding the uncertainties in your requirements
  • Communicate uncertainty between analysts and decision-makers as auditable data
  • Aggregate risk models across software platforms across the enterprise
  • Calculate the chances of achieving financial targets or incurring losses interactively in Excel without macros or add-ins
  • Calibrate the opinions of experts, when no data is available
  • Determine the most important uncertainties to resolve
Who Should Attend?
  • Senior decision-makers in industry and government who must make plans in the face of uncertainty
  • Risk Management professionals
  • Project Managers
  • Simulation users, in particular those familiar with Oracle Crystal Ball, @RISK and Risk Solver Platform

Registration Details



(before 10/2/15)

(after 10/2/15)

(must use a .gov, .mil, or .edu email address to qualify)






  • 30% discount for additional attendees from the same organization. Contact Melissa Kirmse for the discount code.
  • Cancellations received by Friday, December 18, 2015 will receive a full refund. No refunds will be given for cancellations received after December 18, 2015. Cancellations must be made in writing to Melissa Kirmse at Substitutions to this event are welcome in lieu of cancellations.

Registration includes access to:General Sessions

  • General Sessions
  • Continental Breakfasts, Networking Breaks, and Networking Luncheons
  • Reception on January 26
  • Onsite Agenda and Meeting Materials
  • Latest SIPmath™ Software Tools
  • Post-event Online Speaker Proceedings (if released by speaker)