Dates and Locations

9:00 AM - 5:00 PM (see schedule below)

About Dr. Savage

Dr. Sam L. Savage is author of The Flaw of Averages: Why We Underestimate Risk in the Face of Uncertainty, the book that started the probability management revolution. He is also Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org, a Consulting Professor at Stanford University, and inventor of the SIP, an open data structure that lets simulations communicate with each other.

Registration Details

General Registration: $450
Government/Military Registration: $250
(must register using government or military email address)
Student Registration: $125
(must register using student email address) 

3 or more attendees from the same organization will receive a 25% discount (contact Melissa Kirmse for the promo code prior to registration). 

Cancellations received up to one week prior to each event will receive a full refund. No refunds will be given after that point. Cancellations must be made in writing to Melissa Kirmse. Substitutions are welcome in lieu of cancellations.

Schedule
(subject to change)

9:00 AM - 10:30 AM: Understanding Uncertainty

  • Risk vs. Uncertainty
  • Visualizing and Communicating Uncertainty
  • Combined Uncertainties
  • Plans Based on Uncertain Inputs (is there any other kind?)
  • Interrelated Uncertainties

10:30 AM – 10:45 AM: Break

10:45 AM – 11:00 AM: The Flaw of Averages - Why Everything is:

  • Behind Schedule
  • Below Projection
         and
  • Beyond Budget       

11:00 AM - 12:00 PM: Probability Management

  • Summing Uncertainty: SIPs, the Arabic Numerals of Uncertainty
  • SIPmath in Excel - Doing for Simulation What Cold Fusion Would Have Done for Energy If It Had Worked
  • Planning with Chances
  • Modeling the Multiverse           

12:00 PM - 1:00 PM: Lunch

1:00 PM - 2:00 PM: Applications of Probability Management

  • Portfolios of R&D Projects: Energy and Pharmaceutical
  • Consolidating Operational Risks at Power Utilities
  • Risk Based Municipal Budgeting

2:00 AM – 2:45 PM: The Free SIPmath Modeler Tools - Release 3.0                               

2:45 PM - 3:00 PM: Break                               

3:00 PM - 5:00 PM: Audience Problem Submission and Modeling Improv
 
 

The Arithmetic of Uncertainty
A Cure for the Flaw of Averages
A one day workshop with optional hands-on computer lab

Learn how to perform 10,000 simulated trials in native Excel!

You will also learn:

  • How to cure the Flaw of Averages, a set of systematic errors that cause your projects to be behind schedule, below projection, and beyond budget.
  • How to use the free SIPmath Tools to create interactive risk dashboards that perform thousands of Monte Carlo trials per keystroke in native Excel.
  • How Chevron, Lockheed Martin, and the US Navy are building communities of practice around probability management.

Additional topics:

  • The open SIPmath standard that represents uncertainties as auditable data.
  • The Arithmetic of Uncertainty: the latest versions of Microsoft Excel and PowerPivot are game changers in simultating uncertainty and can network results with @Risk, Crystal Ball, Matlab, R, and other analytical packages.

Send us examples of issues your organization is facing with risk and uncertainty, and Dr. Savage will attempt to create prototype models using the free SIPmath Tools to solve them in native Excel. Check out the Models page of our website for examples.

Who Should Attend?

Anyone managing uncertain projects or investments in:

Energy
Healthcare
Finance

Pharmaceuticals
Government
The Military

Venture Capital
Cyber Security
Supply Chain

No statistical background is assumed, but for those with extensive training in the subject, the damage is typically repaired in the first 45 minutes.

Rated PG-13: Contains Strong Language Regarding Current Risk Management Practices

What People Are Saying


MIT’s SLOAN Management Review refers to ProbabilityManagement.org as “a non-profit organization that aims at improving communication of uncertainty,” and applies “simulation-based communication to improve actual managerial decisions and public policies.”

“Sam Savage is the Edward Tufte of risk.” – Matthew Raphaelson, Executive Vice President, Wells Fargo Bank 

“The SIP (Stochastic Information Packet) … represents a major breakthrough in the communication of risk and uncertainty.” – Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate in Economics

“I highly recommend The Flaw of Averages.” – William J. Perry, former U.S. Secretary of Defense

"The discipline of probability management transforms proven risk modeling techniques into simple business steps." – Professor Daniel Ralph, Director, Centre for Risk Studies, Cambridge University

"SIPmath can aggregate Chevron's existing probabilistic models for individual projects into an analysis of the portfolio as a whole.” – Brian Putt, Decision Analyst, Chevron

“Stochastic Information Packets (SIPs) are an ideal means for modeling and conveying uncertainty in a standardized fashion. We continue to believe that SIPs will play an increasing role in the way organizations manage uncertainty.” – Eric Wainwright, Co-founder and Chief Technology Officer of Oracle Crystal Ball

“Probability management provides a level of clarity previously unavailable to senior Navy decision makers. Interactive stochastic modeling can alter the conversation from ‘What’s the right answer?’ to ‘What’s the right question?’” – David Cashbaugh, Director of Navy Personnel Research, Studies, and Technology

"Probability Management is removing taboos associated with acknowledging uncertainty in public finance." – Shayne Kavanagh, Senior Manager of Research, Government Finance Officers Association

CAP PDU Credit

This course provides 5.5 hours of INFORMS Certified Analytics Professional Development Units (CAP PDUs). 

Contact

Melissa Kirmse
Director of Operations
ProbabilityManagement.org 

melissa@probabilitymanagement.org