Dates and Times

How to Measure Anything (Douglas Hubbard)

Interactive Decision Support at Lockheed Martin (Philip Fahringer)

Limbic Analytics (Sam Savage)

SIPmath Modeler Tools Basics (Brian Putt)

SIPmath - The Glue to Integrate Models Across Organizational Boundaries (Eric Torkia)

SIPmath Workbench (Sam Savage)

The Metalog Distributions (Tom Keelin)

Webinar Hosts
Webinars will be hosted by one of the following experts:

Douglas Hubbard, President, Hubbard Decision Research and author of How to Measure Anything

  

Philip Fahringer, Lockheed Martin Fellow and Operations Analyst

  

Tom Keelin, Founder and Managing Partner, 
Keelin Reeds Partners

Brian Putt, Energy Practice Chair, ProbabilityManagement.org 

 
Dr. Sam Savage, Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org and author of The Flaw of Averages


Eric Torkia, Executive Partner and Analytics Practice Lead, Technology Partnerz Ltd.

 

 
Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants

Webinars

Seven webinars are being offered. Detailed descriptions are below.

How to Measure Anything: Common Statistics Misconceptions that Get in the Way of Measurement (Doug Hubbard, 60 minutes)

Often, misunderstandings about statistics will cause decision makers to assume that certain things aren’t measurable. They may believe that they lack a “statistically significant” amount of data or that messy and biased data is the same value as no data at all. Doug Hubbard will explain that the real math behind these concepts contradicts common assumptions about what can be inferred from a given amount of data. After a few key misconceptions are overturned, you will see how much more is measurable than you ever thought.

Interactive Decision Support at Lockheed Martin Using Probability Management Concepts   (Phil Fahringer, 60 minutes) 

Philip Fahringer, Lockheed Martin Fellow, will provide a live demonstration of Decision Support Applications implemented at Lockheed Martin using Probability Management approaches and concepts. These applications have directly led to improved customer and business outcomes through better communication of analytic insights to help better balance performance and risk and inform decision making.

Limbic Analytics: Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants (Sam Savage, 60 minutes)

Analytical models are easy to explain. The hard part is getting people to understand them. This is particularly true with statistical concepts, for which most of us have little intuition. This webinar shows how to bring statistical concepts to life through SIPmath simulations in Excel which run thousands of trials per keystroke. Learn how to wake people up with your analytical presentations instead of putting them to sleep with PowerPoint.

Topics: The Flaw of Averages, Communicating Uncertainty as Data, SIPmath - the Arithmetic of Uncertainty

SIPmath Modeler Tools Basics (Brian Putt, 60 minutes)

In this tutorial webinar, you will learn how to use the free 3.0 SIPmath Modeler Tools, available on our website. With these tools you can easily create dynamic simulation models that can run in Microsoft Excel without any macros or add-ins. Create new models or make your existing deterministic model robust to reflect uncertainty using the SIPmath Tools

New Features in 3.0 Version:
  • Generates a wide array of probability distributions to include the Myerson and Metalog distributions
  • Easily calculate Means and percentiles of random variables
  • Generates histograms of the distribution and Cumulative Distribution Graphs that are automatically updated with model changes
  • Supports Excel 2010 and newer in Windows, Excel 2016 and newer on Mac

SIPmath - The Glue to Integrate Models Across Organizational Boundaries (Eric Torkia, 60 minutes)

One of the major challenges Monte Carlo simulation is that the applications tend to be focused on a specific problem or area in the organization. Of course, the true power of this analysis needs to be shared and used as inputs to other models otherwise there is the potential of missing out on key insights because important models are not being aggregated from all areas of the organization. This approach allows for, through a structured approach, the ability create company-wide meta-models that combine all the insight from sub-models created in other parts of the organization. This notion of networking multiple models also extends outside the firm. Organizations could and can integrate probabilistic data from outside entities (such as government agencies, banks, open data repositories, etc. ) to enrich their model with “real” data.

SIPmath Workbench: From Blank Worksheet to Proof of Concept in 10 Minutes (Sam Savage, 60 minutes)

In this one hour webinar Dr. Savage will take several risk modeling problems from discussion to prototype. He will select from problems either sent in advance, or presented during the webinar itself. 

  • Kickstart your risk dashboard in native Excel
  • Improve your SIPmath skills
  • Learn how to build a model to sell your analytical concept

The Metalog Distributions (Tom Keelin, 60 minutes)

The metalog distributions are an innovative new family of continuous probability distributions that better meet many of today’s needs than conventional distributions from centuries past. The metalogs can represent a much wider range of shapes than conventional distributions like the normal, lognormal, beta, or triangular. Being quantile-parameterized, metalogs automatically mold themselves to assessed or empirical data, eliminating any need for curve-fitting. They offer a choice among unbounded, semi-bounded, and bounded forms and have simple, closed-form, easy-to-program equations – making them ideal for decision analysis, simulation, and instant representation of most any assessed or empirical probabilistic data.  

Registration

Webinars are $75 each, or $350 for all seven. Employees of our corporate sponsors may attend at no charge. If you purchase our Enterprise Tools, you may also attend at no charge. If you plan to register for all five webinars, please contact Melissa Kirmse before you register to get the coupon code.

Note: if these dates and times do not work for your organization, we will consider hosting a webinar at a more convenient time for groups of 5 or more. Please contact Melissa Kirmse for more details.

CAP PDU Credit

Each webinar qualifies for 1 hour of CAP PDU credit.

Contact

Melissa Kirmse 
Director of Operations
ProbabilityManagement.org

melissa@probabilitymanagement.org