**Dates and Times**

**How to Measure Anything **(Douglas Hubbard)

- Tuesday, October 31 at 9 AM CDT
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- Monday, November 6 at 9 AM CST

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**Interactive Decision Support at Lockheed Martin **(Philip Fahringer)

- Tuesday, September 26 at 11:00 AM PDT
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- Thursday, November 2 at 11:00 AM PDT

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**Limbic Analytics **(Sam Savage)

- Friday, October 6 at 10:00 AM PDT
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- Tuesday, November 7 at 10:00 AM PST
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**SIPmath Modeler Tools Basics **(Brian Putt)

- Tuesday, Septempber 19 at 9:00 AM PDT
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- Tuesday, October 10 at 8:00 AM PDT
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- Tuesday, November 14 at 8:00 AM PST
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**SIPmath - The Glue to Integrate Models Across Organizational Boundaries **(Eric Torkia)

- Thursday, September 21 at 10 AM PDT
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- Thursday, November 9 at 10 AM PST
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**SIPmath Workbench **(Sam Savage)

- Thursday, September 28 at 9:00 AM PDT
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- Tuesday, October 24 at 10:00 AM PDT
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- Thursday, November 16 at 4:00 PM PST
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**The Metalog Distributions **(Tom Keelin)

- Wednesday, October 18 at 9:00 AM PDT
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**Webinar Hosts**Webinars will be hosted by one of the following experts:

Douglas Hubbard, President, Hubbard Decision Research and author of *How to Measure Anything*

Philip Fahringer, Lockheed Martin Fellow and Operations Analyst

* *

Tom Keelin, Founder and Managing Partner,

Keelin Reeds Partners

Brian Putt, Energy Practice Chair, ProbabilityManagement.org

Dr. Sam Savage, Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org and author of *The Flaw of Averages*

* *

Eric Torkia, Executive Partner and Analytics Practice Lead, Technology Partnerz Ltd.

Connecting the Seat of the Intellect to the Seat of the Pants

Seven webinars are being offered. Detailed descriptions are below.

- How to Measure Anything (Douglas Hubbard) - Learn about common statistics misconceptions that get in the way of measurement
- Interactive Decision Support at Lockheed Martin (Philip Fahringer) - A live demo of applications implemented at Lockheed Martin using probability management concepts
- Limbic Analytics (Sam Savage) - Bringing statistical concepts to life through SIPmath
- SIPmath Modeler Tools Basics (Brian Putt) - Tricks and tips for using the free tools
- SIPmath: The Glue to Integrate Models Across Organizational Boundaries (Eric Torkia) - Learn how to network simulation results across organizations
- SIPmath Workbench (Sam Savage) - Dr. Savage gets you started with a blank worksheet
- The Metalog Distributions (Tom Keelin) - Learn how metalog distributions facilitate Monte Carlo simulation

**How to Measure Anything: Common Statistics Misconceptions that Get in the Way of Measurement **(Doug Hubbard, 60 minutes)

Often, misunderstandings about statistics will cause decision makers to assume that certain things aren’t measurable. They may believe that they lack a “statistically significant” amount of data or that messy and biased data is the same value as no data at all. Doug Hubbard will explain that the real math behind these concepts contradicts common assumptions about what can be inferred from a given amount of data. After a few key misconceptions are overturned, you will see how much more is measurable than you ever thought.

**Interactive Decision Support at Lockheed Martin Using Probability Management Concepts** (Phil Fahringer, 60 minutes)

Philip Fahringer, Lockheed Martin Fellow, will provide a live demonstration of Decision Support Applications implemented at Lockheed Martin using Probability Management approaches and concepts. These applications have directly led to improved customer and business outcomes through better communication of analytic insights to help better balance performance and risk and inform decision making.

Analytical models are easy to explain. The hard part is getting people to understand them. This is particularly true with statistical concepts, for which most of us have little intuition. This webinar shows how to bring statistical concepts to life through SIPmath simulations in Excel which run thousands of trials per keystroke. Learn how to wake people up with your analytical presentations instead of putting them to sleep with PowerPoint.

Topics: The Flaw of Averages, Communicating Uncertainty as Data, SIPmath - the Arithmetic of Uncertainty

**SIPmath Modeler Tools Basics **(Brian Putt, 60 minutes)

In this tutorial webinar, you will learn how to use the free 3.0 SIPmath Modeler Tools, available on our **website**. With these tools you can easily create dynamic simulation models that can run in Microsoft Excel without any macros or add-ins. Create new models or make your existing deterministic model robust to reflect uncertainty using the SIPmath Tools

- Generates a wide array of probability distributions to include the Myerson and Metalog distributions
- Easily calculate Means and percentiles of random variables
- Generates histograms of the distribution and Cumulative Distribution Graphs that are automatically updated with model changes
- Supports Excel 2010 and newer in Windows, Excel 2016 and newer on Mac

** SIPmath - The Glue to Integrate Models Across Organizational Boundaries **(Eric Torkia, 60 minutes)

One of the major challenges Monte Carlo simulation is that the applications tend to be focused on a specific problem or area in the organization. Of course, the true power of this analysis needs to be shared and used as inputs to other models otherwise there is the potential of missing out on key insights because important models are not being aggregated from all areas of the organization. This approach allows for, through a structured approach, the ability create company-wide meta-models that combine all the insight from sub-models created in other parts of the organization. This notion of networking multiple models also extends outside the firm. Organizations could and can integrate probabilistic data from outside entities (such as government agencies, banks, open data repositories, etc. ) to enrich their model with “real” data.

**SIPmath Workbench: From Blank Worksheet to Proof of Concept in 10 Minutes **(Sam Savage, 60 minutes)

In this one hour webinar Dr. Savage will take several risk modeling problems from discussion to prototype. He will select from problems either sent in advance, or presented during the webinar itself.

- Kickstart your risk dashboard in native Excel
- Improve your SIPmath skills
- Learn how to build a model to sell your analytical concept

**The Metalog Distributions **(Tom Keelin, 60 minutes)

The metalog distributions are an innovative new family of continuous probability distributions that better meet many of today’s needs than conventional distributions from centuries past. The metalogs can represent a much wider range of shapes than conventional distributions like the normal, lognormal, beta, or triangular. Being quantile-parameterized, metalogs automatically mold themselves to assessed or empirical data, eliminating any need for curve-fitting. They offer a choice among unbounded, semi-bounded, and bounded forms and have simple, closed-form, easy-to-program equations – making them ideal for decision analysis, simulation, and instant representation of most any assessed or empirical probabilistic data.

**Registration**

Webinars are $75 each, or $350 for all seven. Employees of our corporate sponsors may attend at no charge. If you purchase our Enterprise Tools, you may also attend at no charge. If you plan to register for all five webinars, please contact Melissa Kirmse **before you register** to get the coupon code.

Note: if these dates and times do not work for your organization, we will consider hosting a webinar at a more convenient time for groups of 5 or more. Please contact Melissa Kirmse for more details.

**CAP PDU Credit**

Each webinar qualifies for 1 hour of CAP PDU credit.

Melissa Kirmse

Director of Operations

ProbabilityManagement.org

melissa@probabilitymanagement.org