Dates and Times
Probability Management Revolution
3.0 SIPmath Modeler Tools
Webinars are $100 each, or $240 for all three. Employees of our corporate sponsors may attend at no charge. If you plan to attend all three, please contact firstname.lastname@example.org
before you register to get the coupon code.
Note: if these dates and times do not work for your organization, we will consider hosting a webinar at a more convenient time for groups of 5 or more. Please contact Melissa Kirmse for more details.
CAP PDU Credit
Each webinar qualifies for 1 hour of CAP PDU credit.
Webinars will be hosted by one of the following experts:
Dr. Sam Savage, Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org and author of The Flaw of Averages
Brian Putt, Energy Practice Chair, ProbabilityManagement.org
Jordan Alen, Technology Coordinator, ProbabilityManagement.org
Director of Operations
Three webinars are being offered. Detailed descriptions are below.
1. The Flaw of Averages
This set of systematic errors occurs when uncertainty is expressed as a single “average” number or best guess. It explains why so many projects are behind schedule, beyond budget, and behind schedule. These problems are easy to recognize with a little training, and because the errors are systematic, they may be corrected to make better decisions under uncertainty.
2. Probability Management – Uncertainty as Data
The discipline of probability management communicates uncertainty as arrays a data called SIPs
(Stochastic Information Packets). You may think of these as simulated or historical outcomes of
uncertain variables, such as future demand for your product, interest rate, or cost of materials. A set of SIPs that preserve statistical dependence is a Stochastic Library Unit with Relationships Preserved, or a SLURP.
3. SIPmath, The Arithmetic of Uncertainty
Performing calculations with SIPs is called SIPmath. In native Excel, for example, you may add, multiply or use any other Excel formula on uncertainties using the same keystrokes you would have used for numbers. The magic is the Excel Data Table, which can perform thousands of simulation trials per keystroke. The free SIPmath tools available at our website make it easy to create such simulations, but the resulting models run in native Excel with no macros or add ins.
4. Real World Examples
Examples of actual applications will be demonstrated including:
SIPmath Workbench (Sam Savage, 60 minutes)
Dr. Savage gets you started with a blank worksheet
Native Excel is now powerful enough to run thousands of simulation trials per keystroke with the native Data Table function. The free SIPmath tools from ProbabilityManagement.org make it easy to create such models, but the models themselves do not need the tools to run, so you can share them with 500,000,000 of your best friends.
Donald Knuth’s Five Step Process
The famous Stanford computer scientist discovered in the 1970s that the development of all computer
applications go through five phases of development:
1) Decide what you want your application to do
2) Decide how to do it
3) Do it
4) Debug it
5) Trash steps 1 through 4 now that you know what you really wanted in the first place.
In this one hour webinar Dr. Savage will take one or two risk modeling problems from a blank
spreadsheet to step 5 before your very eyes. He will select from problems either sent in advance, or presented during the webinar itself.
3.0 SIPmath Modeler Tools (Brian Putt or Jordan Alen, 60 minutes)
Tricks and tips for using the free tools
In this tutorial webinar, you will learn how to use the free 3.0 SIPmath Modeler Tools, available on our website. With these tools you can easily create dynamic simulation models that can run in Microsoft Excel without any macros or add-ins. Create new models or make your existing deterministic model robust to reflect uncertainty using the SIPmath Tools