Day 1: Embracing Uncertainty

A tipping point in the power of computers, spreadsheets, and data standards has changed how we communicate and calculate uncertainty. Doug Hubbard and Sam Savage show you how to stop fearing uncertainty and start embracing it. This workshop will teach you how:

• Ignoring uncertainty undermines every business decision you make
• Estimating uncertain inputs with limited data is more valuable than you think
• Creating risk dashboards in native Excel will consistently improve your decision outcomes

Topics

Communicating Uncertainty: A New Standard
New breakthroughs in communicating uncertainty through interactive graphics and auditable data are accessible without statistical training. Learn how the open SIPmath™ standard lets you aggregate risk across platforms across the enterprise to create a consolidated risk statement.

Ignoring Uncertainty:  The Flaw of Averages
Replacing uncertainties with single number averages results in systematic errors called the Flaw of Averages, which explains why so many things are behind schedule, beyond budget, and below projection.

Measuring Uncertainty: Data and Calibrated Experts
Even when you need to start with subjective uncertainties, some methods measurably outperform others.  Learn how you can state your current uncertainty quantitatively by becoming a “calibrated” probability estimator.

Reducing Uncertainty: Empirical Methods
Measurements can reduce uncertainty even when you think data is messy or missing.  Basic empirical methods to reduce uncertainty will show that you need less data than you think and have more data than you think.

The Economics of Uncertainty: Value of Information
Measurement yields information that reduces uncertainty. But this may require expensive testing or market research. Determine what to measure, identifying high payoff measurements by computing the Value of Information.

The Arithmetic of Uncertainty: SIPmath in Excel
The free SIPmath Modeler Tools from nonprofit ProbabilityManagement.org let you create stand-alone risk dashboards in native Excel that perform thousands of simulation trials per keystroke without macros or add-ins. Bring some of your risk problems to the workshop for our improv modeling session.

Day 2: How to Measure Anything in Project Management

This new installment in Doug Hubbard’s successful “How to Measure Anything” series will reveal how quantitative methods, using prepared spreadsheet templates, can be applied to even the most difficult measurement problems in project management.  Douglas Hubbard will describe in this full day session how to use his methods to measure any intangible, think of risk like an actuary, and look at project management decisions in a quantitative way that is proven to improve decision-making performance.

The material is designed for project managers and any analyst or decision maker responsible for creating, reviewing, or acting on business cases or performance metrics for projects.

Core Topics –  The following topics are included in the day’s seminar:

• Understanding what’s wrong with current PM “Measurements” like risk matrices
• Thinking about project measurements and project risk more like a scientist and actuary
• Approving and prioritizing projects
• Building a Monte Carlo Simulation of a project with Excel
• Knowing what to measure based on the Value of Information calculations
• Modeling and measuring the risk of project failure
• Assessing the true cost of scope creep
• Assessing team performance and project “intangibles”
• Modeling and measuring resource risk such as turnover, key person risk, etc.
• Conducting measurements before, during and after a project using prepared Excel spreadsheets