Dates and Locations

  • September 19 - 20: Herndon, VA
    Embracing Uncertainty & How to Measure Anything: Finding the Values of Intangibles in Business
    SOLD OUT
  • November 16 - 17: Houston, TX (rescheduled)
    Embracing Uncertainty & How to Measure Anything in Project Management
    REGISTER NOW

Douglas Hubbard is the founder of Hubbard Decision Research and the author of 
How to Measure Anything and 
The Failure of Risk Management.


Sam Savage is Executive Director of ProbabilityManagement.org and the author of 
The Flaw of Averages and 
Decision Making with Insight.

Registration Details

Registration fees are as follows:

Embracing Uncertainty 1-day workshop: $450/500 (depending on location)
How to Measure Anything 1-day workshop: $850/900 (depending on location)
2-Day Bundle: $1000/1100 (depending on location)

Cancellations received up to one week prior to each event will receive a full refund. No refunds will be given after that point. Cancellations must be made in writing to Melissa Kirmse. Substitutions are welcome in lieu of cancellations.

Contact

Melissa Kirmse
ProbabilityManagement.org
 
melissa@probabilitymanagement.org
Doug Hubbard & Sam Savage

Doug Hubbard and Sam Savage, leaders of the probability management revolution, are offering a joint presentation in several different cities. Attend one day or two days. Learn more below. 

Day 1: Embracing Uncertainty

A tipping point in the power of computers, spreadsheets, and data standards has changed how we communicate and calculate uncertainty. Doug Hubbard and Sam Savage show you how to stop fearing uncertainty and start embracing it. This workshop will teach you how:

  • Ignoring uncertainty undermines every business decision you make
  • Estimating uncertain inputs with limited data is more valuable than you think
  • Creating risk dashboards in native Excel will consistently improve your decision outcomes

Topics

Communicating Uncertainty: A New Standard
New breakthroughs in communicating uncertainty through interactive graphics and auditable data are accessible without statistical training. Learn how the open SIPmath™ standard lets you aggregate risk across platforms across the enterprise to create a consolidated risk statement.

Ignoring Uncertainty:  The Flaw of Averages
Replacing uncertainties with single number averages results in systematic errors called the Flaw of Averages, which explains why so many things are behind schedule, beyond budget, and below projection.

Measuring Uncertainty: Data and Calibrated Experts
Even when you need to start with subjective uncertainties, some methods measurably outperform others.  Learn how you can state your current uncertainty quantitatively by becoming a “calibrated” probability estimator.

Reducing Uncertainty: Empirical Methods
Measurements can reduce uncertainty even when you think data is messy or missing.  Basic empirical methods to reduce uncertainty will show that you need less data than you think and have more data than you think.

The Economics of Uncertainty: Value of Information
Measurement yields information that reduces uncertainty. But this may require expensive testing or market research. Determine what to measure, identifying high payoff measurements by computing the Value of Information.

The Arithmetic of Uncertainty: SIPmath in Excel
The free SIPmath Modeler Tools from nonprofit ProbabilityManagement.org let you create stand-alone risk dashboards in native Excel that perform thousands of simulation trials per keystroke without macros or add-ins. Bring some of your risk problems to the workshop for our improv modeling session.

Day 2: How to Measure Anything 

Douglas Hubbard’s acclaimed 2007 book on measuring intangibles in business decisions has grown into a series on quantitative methods any decision maker or analyst can use. This training will show how anything can be measured, how risk can be assessed quantitatively, how decisions can be improved and you can begin to master even the most difficult measurement problems with powerful, proven methods. 

How to Measure Anything: Finding the Value of Intangibles in Business

Douglas Hubbard will describe how to use the Applied Information Economics method to measure any intangible, think of risk like an actuary, and look at risky decisions in a quantitative way that is proven to improve decision-making performance.

The material is designed for any person in the organization whose responsibilities include creating, reviewing, and acting on business cases or performance metrics.

Core Topics - The following topics are included in the day's seminar:

  • Understanding what’s wrong with current “Measurements” like risk matrices
  • Thinking about measurement and risk more like a scientist and actuary
  • Approving and prioritizing investments
  • Building a Monte Carlo Simulation of in Excel
  • Knowing what to measure based on the Value of Information calculations
  • Conducting measurements before, during and after a decision using prepared Excel spreadsheets

How to Measure Anything in Project Management

This new installment in Doug Hubbard’s successful “How to Measure Anything” series will reveal how quantitative methods, using prepared spreadsheet templates, can be applied to even the most difficult measurement problems in project management.  Douglas Hubbard will describe in this full day session how to use his methods to measure any intangible, think of risk like an actuary, and look at project management decisions in a quantitative way that is proven to improve decision-making performance.

The material is designed for project managers and any analyst or decision maker responsible for creating, reviewing, or acting on business cases or performance metrics for projects.

Core Topics –  The following topics are included in the day’s seminar:

  • Understanding what’s wrong with current PM “Measurements” like risk matrices
  • Thinking about project measurements and project risk more like a scientist and actuary
  • Approving and prioritizing projects
  • Building a Monte Carlo Simulation of a project with Excel
  • Knowing what to measure based on the Value of Information calculations
  • Modeling and measuring the risk of project failure
  • Assessing the true cost of scope creep
  • Assessing team performance and project “intangibles”
  • Modeling and measuring resource risk such as turnover, key person risk, etc.
  • Conducting measurements before, during and after a project using prepared Excel spreadsheets