Meeting Details - WEBINAR

Tuesday, August 11, 2020 
3:00 pm - 4:30 pm

Title:

Re-Open Does Not Mean Recovery

Speaker(s):
Don Rissmiller, Founding Partner
Strategas Securities, LLC

Thank You to Our Meeting Partner!

Program Description:
We continue to believe there are 2 different business-cycle dynamics now. Recession #1 (Feb-May) looks over. Second, there remains the lingering effect of high unemployment (in many counties) which is unstable economically & politically. So, the expected plateau in economic growth still needs to be digested, as permanent U.S. layoffs continue to climb.

Policymakers remain alert to this second problem (eg, the Fed minutes noting the calls for more forward guidance). But the best fix is likely fiscal policy (still being debated in D.C.) vs. monetary policy. As we’ve noted previously, the COVID-19 shock has been global, and is likely to extend (U.S./China relations have been affected, as have China/Hong Kong issues, euro-area politics, U.S. state budgets, and the November U.S. election). Any resumption of activity, helped by govt transfers, will look like a “V” for a short period. Indeed, PMIs are bouncing around the world. But it will be difficult to get back to 2019 levels of GDP in a socially-distanced world, and we are still digesting that demand destruction. Bottom line: stubborn claims data w/w as well as paused re-openings suggest that while fiscal policy has patched the income gap over the past several months, more is likely necessary. 

Don will discuss: 2Q GDP -50%; 3Q +20%; Monetary and Fiscal Policy Still SupportiveShort Run Deflation vs Long Run InflationStranded Assets, Lack of Capex Will Continue to Drag on GrowthEstimating 10mm Jobs Permanently LostRisks Remain – State & Local Government Finances; Rents / Commercial Real Estate; Emerging Markets Fiscal Policy – Not Many Levers To Pull

Speaker(s):
Don Rissmiller, Founding Partner
Strategas Securities, LLC


Mr. Rissmiller is a founding Partner of Strategas and has directed the Firm's macroeconomic research efforts since 2006. He oversees Strategas' thematic research as well as high-frequency econometric forecasting. Prior to co-founding Strategas in 2006, Mr. Rissmiller was an Economist and Managing Director at International Strategy & Investment (ISI) Group. Before joining ISI, he worked at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, focusing on the analysis of U.S. macroeconomic data and price/wage forecasting models. He is frequently quoted in the financial press. He has been the president of the Forecasters Club of New York, a local group of economists. He serves on the board of the Global Interdependence Center (GIC) based in Philadelphia. Mr. Rissmiller's research has been recognized by Institutional Investor magazine in their annual survey: he was ranked best up and coming economist in 2008, and was 3rd in their 2009 All-America Independent Research Team survey. Mr. Rissmiller holds an AB magna cum laude in Economics from Harvard.

Agenda:
3:00 - 3:15 pm - Chapter Announcements & Strategic Partner Acknowledgements
3:15 – 4:15 pm – Don’s Presentation
4:15 - 4:25 pm – Q & A
4:25 - 4:30 pm - Program Closes