Why does Supply Chain avoid Bottom Up Forecasting and Uses Allocation?

Hint: It’s thought to be too hard. 

We will explore standard approaches used to forecast, delve into the flaws with these approaches, and address better approaches. The discussion will be technical at times, but not too sophisticated so that it is easily understood and actionable. The evolution from complicated to very simple approaches in forecasting has left the S&OP process to struggle with bad forecasts and the bullwhip effect. The "value add" from introducing causal variables and knowledge to explain historical variations allow the forecasting process to identify more of the signal and separate out the noise. It is from these events that by following a more rigorous approach, you can provide "Early Warning Reports" along with a better baseline forecast.

WIIFM: Takeaways

1. What you should be doing in Forecasting

2. What you shouldn’t be doing in Forecasting

3. Why your early warning system isn’t warning you

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SPEAKER

Tom Reilly, CEO Automatic Forecasting Systems

 Tom Reilly has been involved in forecasting and the statistical approaches in this area, done consulting work and training seminars.  He has spoken at INFORMS, Institute of Business Forecasting and the International Symposium on Forecasting Conferences and been published in the IBF Journal.  His BLOGS on forecasting generate some attention as the content is leading the way in this area. Provide Event Details. Who should come? What should they expect to get out of it? Include a photo to make your event even more appealing.

Tom Reilly, CEO, Automatic Forecasting Systems

Office 215-675-0652, Cell 215-932-0877

http://www.autobox.com