“Statistical Inference and the Expected Date of Delivery”

Presented by: Dr. Joe DeSimone

In this presentation, Joe will venture to explore..........The basics of Statistical Inference as related to the intriguing age-old question; “When is my baby going to be born? – worried in San Diego”

 The Estimated Date of Confinement (EDC), also known as expected date of delivery/estimated due date (EDD) or simply Due Date, is a term describing the estimated delivery date for a pregnant woman.

 Confinement is a traditional term referring to the period of pregnancy when an upper-class, Nobel or royal woman would withdraw from society in medieval and Tudor times be confined to their rooms with midwives, ladies-in-waiting and female family members only to attend them. Back then, the EDC was often determined based on feelings, beliefs, incomplete data and much hearsay.  Nowadays, important business decisions are often made the same way!

 Childbirth on average occurs at a gestational age of 280 days (40 weeks) which is therefore often used as a standard estimation for individual pregnancies. However, alternative durations as well as more individualized methods have also been suggested. There is in any case considerable variation among individual pregnancies.

 Naegele's rule is a standard way of calculating the due date for a pregnancy with some assumptions.  Parikh's formula is a calculation method that considers cycle duration. Using Statistical Inference methodologies, (also with assumptions) we can test hypothesis, estimate population parameters and make more viable business (and pregnancy) decisions!