The HayWired Earthquake Scenario: Potential Long-term Community Recovery Challenges and Opportunities for Community Resilience
SEI of ASCE San Francisco Chapter is hosting a presentation, The HayWired Earthquake Scenario: Potential Long-term Community Recovery Challenges and Opportunities for Community Resilience. The presenter, Laurie A. Johnson, PhD, FAICP, will emphasize the long-term housing and community recovery challenges associated with the HayWired earthquake scenario, including areas of concentrated damage, population displacement, and social vulnerability, as well as the opportunities for community resilience that have emerged from this analysis.
6:00 - 6:50 Light deli-style dinner and networking
7:00 - 7:10 SEI Welcome & Announcements
7:10 - 7:15 Presenter Introduction
7:15 - 8:00 Presentation
8:00 - 8:20 Q&A
8:20 - 8:30 Closing Remarks
The HayWired Earthquake Scenario, led by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), anticipates the 
impacts of a hypothetical magnitude-7.0 earthquake on the Hayward Fault which is among the most active and dangerous in the U.S. The name HayWired speaks to the threat of earthquakes on the Hayward Fault and the vulnerabilities and strengths posed by the interconnectedness of the bay region’s people, utilities, roads, and economy—including the digital economy.
Volume 1 of the scenario was released in 2017 and details the earthquake science and hazards information, including the ground rupture model, analyses of potential co-seismic and post-seismic slip as well as the potential for liquefaction and earthquake-generated landslides around the region. The scenario also includes a sequence of hypothetical aftershocks with 175 earthquakes of magnitude 4 or larger and 14 earthquakes of magnitude 5 or larger occurring over a two-year period.
Volume 2 of the scenario was released in April 2018 and focuses on the immediate impacts to people,
buildings and infrastructure. Scenario estimates of casualties include 800 deaths and 18,000 injuries from building and structural damage caused by ground shaking and liquefaction hazards. Property damage and direct business disruption losses due to ground shaking, liquefaction and landslides from the mainshock and aftershock sequence are estimated to be more than $82 billion (in 2016 dollars). In addition, damage from the mainshock could trigger up to 400 fires that could kill hundreds more people, destroy the equivalent of 52,000 single-family homes, and cause property losses approaching $30 billion. Potable water would be impacted across the region, especially for east bay residents who could lose water service for six weeks (some for as long as six months). Over 400,000 people — or 150,000 households — could be displaced from their homes and communities due to residential building damage and extended infrastructure outages.
Volume 3 of the scenario is scheduled for release in late 2018. It will look at the impacts on information and communications technology, effects on jobs and the regional economy, and issues for long-term community recovery. The USGS and its partners in the HayWired Coalition and the HayWired Campaign (https://outsmartdisaster.com) are working to energize residents and businesses to engage in new and ongoing efforts to prepare the region for such a future earthquake.
About the presenter
Laurie A. Johnson, PhD, FAICP -- Principal, Laurie Johnson Consulting | Research
Laurie Johnson is an internationally-recognized urban planner specializing in disaster recovery and 
catastrophe risk management and based in the San Francisco Bay Area. For over 30 years, she has combined her unique blend of professional practice and researchto help communities address the complex urban challenges posed by natural hazards and disasters.
Much of her post-disaster recovery work is captured in her recent book, After Great Disasters: An In-Depth Analysis of How Six Countries Managed Community Recovery (2017). She currently serves as enterprise and strategic risk advisor to the California Earthquake Authority—the state’s residential earthquake insurance program, and a recovery planning advisor for Sonoma County and the City of Santa Rosa following the 2017 wildfires and the cities of Christchurch and Wellington, New Zealand in earthquake recovery and planning. She has been a contributor to all four of the U.S. Geological Survey scenario projects: ShakeOut, ARkStorm, the SAFRR tsunami scenario, and HayWired.
Dr. Johnson chairs the U.S. federal Advisory Committee on Earthquake Hazards Reduction (ACEHR) and is the president-elect of the Earthquake Engineering Research Institute (EERI). She was inducted into the College of Fellows of the American Institute of Certified Planners (FAICP) in 2018. She is a Visiting Scholar with the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center, UC Berkeley, and affiliated faculty with New York University’s Global Institute for Public Health Program on Population Impact, Recovery and Resilience. She holds a Doctor of Informatics degree from Kyoto University, Japan, and a Master of Urban Planning and a Bachelor of Science in Geophysics, both from Texas A&M University.