Schedule
Tuesday, March 7
8:30 AM: Continental Breakfast
9:00 AM - 11:45 AM: Conference Sessions
11:45 AM - 12:45 PM: Lunch
1:15 PM - 4:00 PM: Conference Sessions
4:00 PM - 5:30 PM: Reception with no-host bar and technology partner demonstrations
Wednesday, March 8
8:30 AM: Continental Breakfast
9:00 AM - 12:00 PM: Conference Session
12:00 PM - 1:00 PM: Lunch
1:00 PM - 5:00 PM: Conference Session
4:30 PM - 5:30 PM: Optional Improvisational Computer Lab
Location
Loring Ward Corporate Office
10 Almaden Boulevard, 15th Floor
San Jose, CA 95113
Map
Hotel Reservations
Hotel De Anza
233 W Santa Clara St.
San Jose, CA 95113
A limited number of rooms are available at a discounted rate.
Attendees are responsible for making their own guestroom reservations by contacting the Hotel De Anza directly.
Phone: 408-286-1000 (ask for Reservations and mention "Probability Management Group")
Website: Reserve here or visit www.hoteldeanza.com and use code SIPMATH
Melissa Kirmse
Probability Management
melissa@probabilitymanagement.org
CAP PDU Credit
Conference qualifies for 6 hours of CAP PDU credit per day.
Annual Conference
Modeling Uncertainty in Cybersecurity, Operational Risk, and Regulation
March 7 - 8, 2017
Featured Presentations
Communicating Uncertainty Harry Markowitz, Nobel Laureate and Board Member, ProbabilityManagement.org (via web meeting)
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Probability Management Overview and Managing Risk on Your Laptop Sam Savage, Executive Director, Probability Management.org and author of The Flaw of Averages
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Keynote: Probabilistic Measures of Cybersecurity Risk Doug Hubbard, President, Hubbard Decision Research and coauthor of How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity
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Case Studies
- Belief in Probabilistic Models: The Human Element of Detectors And The Mistakes of a New Data Scientist - Anton Mobley, Cybersecurity Data Scientist, GE Healthcare
- Building A Probabilistic Cyber Risk Register: HTMA in Cybersecurity Risk Applied In The Real World - Richard Seiersen, coauthor of How to Measure Anything in Cybersecurity and VP of Trust and CISO, Twilio
- Managing Risk and Reliability in a Regulated Environment - Mason Withers, Quantitative Risk and Controls Manager, Sempra Utilities
- Managing Uncertainty in City Budget Forecasts - Shayne Kavanagh, Senior Manager of Research, Government Finance Officers Association
- Modeling Best Practices Benchmarking Project (MBP2) – Initial Findings; Everyone is Uncertain Whether They Know it or Not - Steve Roemerman, Chairman & CEO, Lone Star Analysis
- Multi Criterion Optimization and Other Lies - Phil Fahringer, Operations Analyst & Fellow, Lockheed Martin
- Rolling Up Operational Risk at PG&E - Christine Cowsert Chapman, Asset Knowledge & Integrity Management in Gas Operations, PG&E; Farshad Miraftab, Senior Risk Analyst, Gas Operations, PG&E
- Submarine Detection with SIPmath in the Navy - Connor McLemore - LCDR US Navy, Assistant Professor, Naval Postgraduate School
- Teaching Probability in Middle Schools: Live Web Interaction with West Oakland Students - Sam Savage; Kennan Scott, STEM Teacher, West Oakland Middle School
Panel Discussions
- A Unified Approach to Risk Regulation - Grant Davies (moderator), President, Davies Consulting; Christine Cowsert Chapman; Farshad Miraftab; Richard G. White, Senior Policy Analyst, California Public Utilities Commission; Mason Withers
- Cybersecurity: Is Your Risk Analysis Measuring the Right Threats? - Doug Hubbard (moderator); Anton Mobley; Richard Seiersen; FBI San Francisco
- Panel on Dealing with Uncertainty in Prediction, Modeling, Simulation and Analysis: A Cross Industry View - Steve Roemerman (moderator); Philip Fahringer; Connor McLemore
Reception with no-host bar and technology partner demonstrations on the evening of March 7.
What You Will Learn
Gartner Inc. has referred to the discipline of probability management as “transformational.”
- Learn how to unambiguously communicate uncertainty as auditable data.
- Learn how to create interactive risk simulations in native Excel that run thousands of trials instantly.
- See how these ideas are being applied to cybersecurity, operational risk, and regulation.
Who Should Attend?
- Senior decision-makers in industry and government who must make plans in the face of uncertainty
- Risk Management professionals
- Project managers
- Simulation users, in particular those familiar with Oracle Crystal Ball, @RISK, and Risk Solver platforms
Registration Details
Fees:
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Early (before 1/20/17)
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Regular (after 1/20/17)
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Government/Academic (must use a .gov, .mil, or .edu email address to qualify)
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$525
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$650
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General
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$1200
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$1500
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- 30% discount for additional attendees from the same organization. Contact Melissa Kirmse for the discount code.
- Cancellations received by Friday, February 17, 2017 will receive a full refund. No refunds will be given for cancellations received after Friday, February 17, 2017. Cancellations must be made in writing to Melissa Kirmse at melissa@probabilitymanagement.org. Substitutions to this event are welcome in lieu of cancellations.
Registration includes access to:General Sessions
- General Sessions
- Continental Breakfasts, Networking Breaks, and Networking Luncheons
- Reception on March 7
- Onsite Agenda and Meeting Materials
- Latest SIPmath™ Software Tools, including Optional Improvisational Computer Lab
- Post-event Online Speaker Proceedings (if released by speaker)